At 8 P.M a series of severe thunderstorms extended from northeast of Big Springs, Texas, to  west of Brookings, South Dakota, with a break in the line of severe storms in Nebraska.  There have been several reports of tornados but the wind damage thus far in Kansas appears to be front straight winds of 80 mph in some areas, including here in Hutchinson.

 The weather service has reported golf ball sized hail here, but the hail near my house on the west side of town was only pea to marble sized.    The severe storm moved through here at about 4 P.M. with heavy rain  that for a short time reached monsoon levels.  A series of smaller storms followed.   I took a walking tour of the immediate vicinity after the rain stopped and noticed significant tree damage.  The tree damage probably would have been worse had it not been for the ice storm last winter and previous severe thunderstorms that reduced the number of limbs available to be damaged.

On a light note 2 elephants escaped from a circus in Wakeeny, Ks. during the storm, possibly because they were spooked by the tornado sirens.

The storms continue to move east and the system continues to have the potential to produce severe storms and possibly major tornadoes.  The fact that the storms are part of a line rather than separate storms is reducing the potential for tornadoes.  Single super cell storms are more likely to produce strong tornadoes because the air moving upward is concentrated in a  major updraft.   With a line of storms multiple updrafts spread out the air so it doesn't have to move as fast to move up.  The situation is similar to what happens  with a river.   The water moving through a narrow channel moves much faster than water moving over a wide area.

The center of the low pressure system  is currently in Nebraska and the pressure has risen to 991.1 mb.
 
Hopefully the storm will continue to weaken before it reaches the higher humidity air to the east.  

There is a major difference between conditions now and those in 1974.  The 1974  Outbreak occurred  in  April  when there was a supply of much cooler air available  to provide a greater  temperature  differential.   Colder air causes the warm moist air to condense faster and produces stronger downdrafts as that cold air falls.  As the cold rain and hail filled air falls it creates a  suction that pulls up warm moist air as  well as  pushing that air up  from the bottom.

Meteorlogists are concerned that the Central U.S. may face an attack by our "terrorist" in residence  Mother Nature.  Weather conditions are substantially similar to those that existed at the beginning of the  super tornado outbreak of April, 1974.    Over a 16 hour period 148 tornadoes killed 330 people and injured 5,484 along a 2,500 mile path in 13 states.
This included the tornado that devastated Xenia, Ohio. 

The Super Outbreak produced 6 F5 and 23 F4 tornadoes.   

Today as in 1974  the weather is being influenced by a  La Nina  condition in the Pacific.  Mark C. Bove of the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) in a paper published in 1999 noted a connection between ENSO and tornadic activity in the U.S. La Ninas were associated with tornado outbreaks and strong tornadoes.  The tornado that wiped out Greensburg, Kansas,in May, 2007,   occurred while the current la Nina was developing.

The area along the Mississippi may be at particularly strong risk due to a plume of 70 F dew point air extending along the Mississippi that covers most of Illinois as well as southeastern Iowa and northeastern Missouri.    A tropical storm strength  low pressure system (989.2 mb) is currently moving through western Kansas

According to Bove,  "The results indicate that El Nio [El Nino] events reduce tornadic activity in the southern plain states, while El Viejo [la Nina] events increase tornadic activity in the Ohio River Valley and Deep South. Results further show that El Nino inhibits the chances of multiple tornado outbreaks, while La Nina facilitates large tornadic outbreaks and produces more devastating tornadoes."

Ignorant individuals like Al Gore blame bad weather on "global warming" but cool La Ninas cause  more damage than warm el Nino events. 

Currently  a line of thunderstorms has recently developed in central Kansas stretching northeast from Greensburg.  As of 2:30 P.M.  tornado warming has been issued for the area near Hudson based on radar data.  Spotters in Ellsworth County along I-70 have reported a rotating wall cloud.  the line of storms is moving east about 10- 15 mph with individual storms moving at 40 - 60 mph.    Tornado warnings have also been issued for western Kansas  and for the areas around Wakeeney.   Tornado warmings have also been issued in Nebraska. 
Wichita State University has announced that evening classes after 5:00 PM. have been cancelled as a precaution.


National weather service radars can be found at http://radar.weather.gov/ 
To save complete radar images if you have Seamonkey as your browser.  right click and choose save page.  Make sure the box shows web page complete.  The save page function will save an html file as well as a folder of the same file name.

To follow the passage of the storms go to     http://www.wunderground.com/US/Region/US/2xFronts.html